Off-grid Solar Could Provide First-time Electricity Access to Almost 400 million People Globally by 2030
Off-grid solar is the most cost-effective way to power 41% of people globally by 2030 who are still living without energy access. The sector already provided 55% of the new connections in sub-Saharan Africa between 2020 to 2022 - where over 80% of the unelectrified population lives.
The latest Off-Grid Solar Market Trends Report (MTR) 2024, published today by the World Bank’s Energy Sector Management Assistance Program (ESMAP) and GOGLA, warns that a 6-fold increase over current investment levels - or $21 billion - is required to realize off-grid solar’s potential to contribute to universal energy access, or this opportunity will be missed. Under the current trajectory, 660 million people are projected to still be without electricity by 2030.
We must rewrite this story. Providing access to affordable, clean electricity is critical for lifting people out of poverty on a livable planet, and we must be bold in our commitment to doing so. The World Bank Group has therefore partnered with the African Development Bank to connect 300 million people to electricity across Africa over the next 6 years, under the Mission 300 initiative. Off-grid solar will play a critical role in reaching households, as well as accelerating electricity access for businesses, schools, and health centers, unlocking development across sectorsQimiao Fan, the World Bank’s Country Director for Kenya, Rwanda, Somalia and Uganda
With the Off-Grid Solar Market Trends Report, off-grid solar is again proven as the most effective route to reach almost 400 million unelectrified people, delivering life-changing energy solutions to power their homes, farms, businesses, and public services. The industry has shown tremendous resilience in challenging macroeconomic conditions. Companies, investors, governments, and development partners need to work together NOW to unlock the $21 billion needed to create a financially sustainable off-grid solar sector, that can scale, serve the hardest-to-reach and help achieve energy access and climate goals and ambitious initiatives like M300.Sarah Malm, Executive Director at GOGLA
- 685 million people are still living in energy poverty. The number has grown for the first time in two decades and, without immediate action, 660 million people will remain without access by 2030. Off-grid solar solutions would be the most cost-effective way to reach 41% of them (398 million people).
- The off-grid solar sector has shown tremendous resilience over the past two years in challenging macroeconomic conditions. As of 2023, off-grid solar solutions were estimated to benefit over 560 million people. Despite soaring inflation and extreme currency devaluations, among other factors, more than 50 million off-grid solar products were sold in 2022 and 2023. Market turnover reached 3.9 billion USD in 2022 and 3.8 billion USD in 2023.
- Affordability remains a critical barrier for households: Only 22% of households lacking electricity can afford the monthly payment for a Tier 1 solar energy kit on PAYG (a monthly payment system that increases affordability for those users who can’t afford an upfront cash payment). In conflict-affected areas, where 64% of people lacking access live, prices to offer PAYG are 57% higher, making them even less affordable.
- Investment into the off-grid solar sector reached a high of $1.2 billion during the 2022–23 period, largely driven by debt financing. However, a 6x increase in public funding is necessary: $21 billion to electrify all the 398 million people who would be most efficiently connected via off-grid solar. A further $74 billion would cover the addressable markets for solar water pumps, cold storage solutions, and Tier 2+ OGS solutions for Micro, Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (MSMEs).
- Initiatives like Mission 300 from the World Bank and the AfDB to electrify 300 million people across Africa and integration of OGS in national electrification plans and energy transition plans indicate off-grid solar is increasingly being recognized in the international agenda.
- Companies, investors, governments and development partners need to work together to ensure off-grid solar fulfills its potential, enabling the achievement of SDG 7, and having a transformative impact on households, businesses, farmers and social infrastructure.
The MTR was presented at the plenary session of the biennial Global Off-Grid Solar Forum and Expo in Nairobi to over 1500 attendees, including 100+ policymakers, 100+ investors and development actors, and hundreds of companies across the distributed renewables sector.
The Off-Grid Solar Market Trends Report Series has become the go-to source of data and analysis on the off-grid solar sector for investors, industry members, policymakers, and other stakeholders. Released every two years, this 7th edition in the series covers 2022 and 2023, a period during which the market has shown remarkable resilience despite facing numerous global challenges.
Read the full report.
GOGSFE is the off-grid solar sector’s flagship biennial event. Since it started in 2008, it has grown in scale and breadth, as the industry has expanded. The 2024 edition is co-hosted by GOGLA, the global association for the off-grid solar industry, the Government of Kenya and the World Bank’s ESMAP, with the support of partners like Sun King, d.light, GIZ Water and Energy for Food, Energy Catalyst, GreenMax Capital Group, Total Energies and IKEA Foundation.
GOGLA is the global association for the off-grid solar energy industry, representing over 200 members working to transform lives through clean, affordable, and high-quality solar products and services.
More than 560 million climate-vulnerable people already benefit from off-grid solar to power their homes, farms, enterprises and public infrastructure. With the right support, our industry is poised to scale rapidly, aiming to improve the lives of 1 billion people by 2030.
GOGLA drives this progress by serving as a central hub for the sector, offering vital market data, advocating for supportive policies and increased investment, and providing value-added services to our members.
Learn more at gogla.org.
ESMAP is a partnership between the World Bank and over 20 partners to help low- and middle-income countries reduce poverty and boost growth through sustainable energy solutions. ESMAP’s analytical and advisory services are fully integrated within the World Bank’s country financing and policy dialogue in the energy sector. Through the World Bank, ESMAP works to accelerate the energy transition required to achieve Sustainable Development Goal 7 (SDG 7), which ensures access to affordable, reliable, sustainable, and modern energy for all. It helps shape WB strategies and programs to achieve the WB Climate Change Action Plan targets.
Learn more at: https://www.esmap.org.
ESMAP has a leader off-grid solar electrification efforts for more than 15 years, previously through the now-closed Lighting Africa and Lighting Global Programs, which positively impacted over 320 million people. Today, as part of its Energy Access Program, ESMAP continues to catalyze off-grid solar activities with the new business plan (FY25-FY30) focusing on enabling access to three primary groups of beneficiaries - households, businesses, and public institutions.
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